Soccer is about balance and the ability to score depends greatly on the form of the players involved in a match as well as on how vulnerable their opponents are.
In a soccer match as we know any goal scored requires a team’s attack to work well and for the other team’s defense to be ineffective at stopping goals.
Typically, it requires the defense ability of a team to control the opposing team’s movement from scoring goals and consequently, when a team’s defense is vulnerable the chances of scoring increases.
Thus to predict that a match will end in a specific score line, the catch is to evaluate the goal scoring ability and the form of the players the teams will feature in the encounter as well as their level of confidence, or in other words their performance vie-a-vs the level of attacking actions and resilience that the teams will bring to bear on the match.
With this insight, the first step to predict the correct score of a soccer match is to assess the quality of the teams as well as their ability to score and defend goals against their opponent.
To stand a good chance, the initiative is to focus on the physical fitness difference of both teams players.
To play good soccer a team need players that are physically fit and mentally tough.
Generally, in a soccer match players are required to accelerate quickly and powerfully, and break away from their opponent to score goal, and when players are physically fit their ability to do this is greatly enhanced.
So first and foremost to assess the quality of the teams and capability, the catch is to take a look at the team’s sheet to see who is playing and who is out.
It is worthy to note that a team needs it’s key player in a match, and if these key players are fit, it increases their chances of scoring.
Conversely, when they lose a key player or players either through injury or suspension it reduces their chances of scoring.
So the factors to consider from the team’s sheet includes.
One, whether there are players out through injury or suspension, as such event often hampers the performance of a team.
Two, whether the teams have a number of strikers on the substitute bench, and their manager will be putting them, on a later stage in the game and thus not likely to settle for a draw.
Three, whether their managers are playing their best team or saving players for a more important match.
Four, whether the teams possesses improved physical capacity that can increase its technical ability, such as pass rate, ball possession and their overall performance.
Five, whether the teams are going to be playing a defensive or offensive formation.
As teams are usually confronted with situation whose outcome depends not only upon their own strategies, but also upon the strategies and altitude of their opponent in an encounter.
The catch is to build a model with reference to the ways and manner events and situation occur, as well as interact and proceeds in a match on a football field.
A simple way to do this is to relate game patterns base on the form, quality of players and character of the teams, by aligning expectations from the assumption about:
One, whether the form of the teams are improving or deteriorating, or whether the form of one of the teams is improving, while the form of the opponent is in decline as the observed case may be.
Two, whether they possess a formidable or vulnerable team.
A team’s form defines its state and level of consistence, as well as how they play.
What characterizes teams that are in form are:
One, they play on high plane of creativity and launch quickly and strongly toward their objectives.
Two, they experience increased attacking strength and high goal power.
Consequently, what characterizes teams that are out of form are:
One, they play on low plane of creativity.
Two, they experience diminished attacking strength and low goal power.
Three, they experience losing streaks and escalating cycles of decline.
A simple way to assess a team’s form is to evaluate the fitness of their players as well as their level of consistency.
To accomplish this, the catch is to look at the team sheet to see who and who is been featured.
The team sheet will tell you whether there are players out through injury or suspension, as this could seriously deepen a team’s form.
The second initiative is to look at the goal scorer list to see who and who the team has, and how consistent they are with scoring goals.
Another simple way to assess the form of a team, is to look at their recent matches, e.g. to know how many games the team has played without a loss, and how many games they have played without a win.
Other runs to look for as well are:
1. How many games played without a goal?
2. How many games played and won consecutively at home.
3. How many games played and won consecutively at away.
4. How many games played without conceding a goal?
Having assessed the teams form next is to identify the team with better form, and higher level of confidence.
As with all team sport, football is about having confidence in your team mates, and been able to co-ordinate what you do together on the pitch.
Generally, there are two ways of identifying the most confident team.
The first is to look at their past performance, as those with proven history often possess the right momentum, and therefore, are more able to deliver in most situations.
The second approach is to assess the teams, based on the following attributes:
(a) Targeting purpose
(b) Co – ordination level
(c) Initiative and creativity
With regards to how events in football turns out, the higher the level of confidence, the greater the probability of scoring first is in a match.
Other elements you need to also evaluate include the following:
Every single success in soccer is accomplished with enthusiasm.
Enthusiasm is the choice to rally instead of getting discouraged, and it transforms a team by creating a burning desire to perform.
Consequently, enthusiasm and persistence makes an average team superior.
Resolve aims a team with strong determination and builds strength as well as momentum.
Resolve makes teams try harder and longer, thereby increasing their chances of scoring.
In addition, resolve creates tremendous amount of energy to overcome inertia to get going.
Tenacity is the result of a strong will and it manifest in the form of an increased attacking strength.
From study after study of these elements in soccer, it’s worthy to note that the intensity of these elements is directly proportional to the degree of probability to score the first goals in a match.
In other word, the higher the intensity of this elements, the higher the probability that a team will score first.
After identifying the team that’s likely to score the first goal, the next step is to assess the resilience of the team that’s likely to concede the first goal, to spring back or to successfully defend other attempts to score more goals by the opposition.
It’s worthy to note that the more clear you are about these, and about what a team needs in other to achieve this task, the easier it is to assert whether they will actually score or note.
Very well, how a team responds when they concede the first goal depends on the situation and circumstance under which they play.
So to get the right answer to these, what you need to do is to profile the teams.
Given the fact that the starting point of every team’s accomplishment emanates from desire, and that strong desire bears good result, while feeble desire brings feeble result.
First, find out the following:
- Whether the teams were recently promoted or recently relegated.
- Whether the teams were promoted a season ago or relegated a season ago.
- Whether the teams are playing in their third season after promotion or playing in their third season after relegation.
- Whether the teams are playing in their fourth season after promotion or playing in their fourth season after relegation.
- Whether the teams are currently holding a title or previously holding one.
Next, align their status with where they are on the league table, and In relation to the goal they have set or to expectation, with a view to determine whether they are hot or cold.
It’s important to note that teams have different aspiration level in keeping with the need to achieve goals, such as winning a title, gaining promotion, maintaining their league status, and these aspiration levels consequently, defines them.
And in context, the bigger and clearer a team’s aspiration level is, the higher their propensity to score, and consequently, the more intense their desire to achieve their aspiration, the higher the probability to score in a match.
So the catch is to assert whether the team seemly has higher aspiration.
After asserting that the team is relatively having high aspiration or that the team is relatively hot, the catch is to credit them with one goal, and consequently, credit the team that is anticipated to score the first goal with another goal, if your assessment indicates that the team that is anticipated to concede the first goal is cold or are likely to experience a disadvantage for having one or two of their key players out of action, either as a result of injury or suspension, as such event more often hampers the pugnacity of a team to score.
After evaluating the probability of the team to score, next is to evaluate the expected goals base on the quality of players the teams possesses.
Expected goals are the number of goals, you expect the teams to score in the match under consideration, given their individual potential to score and concede goals.
Expected goals tells us how good each team is once luck and randomness are stripped from the equation.
One simple way to evaluate this in a match is to look at the top goal scorer list to identify each team’s target strikers, and how many goals they have scored.
Having identified their target players on the list, the approach is to credit each team with a goal for each player they possess on the list, and further credit the team that is playing at home with a goal for the likely effect of home field advantage, where this is seemly evident.
The reason is simple, and the first is based on the fact that every player on the list has greater chances of scoring, as they are more likely to be positioned closer to the post during an offensive play.
The second reason is that such players are more likely to poise much threat to the opposition either by providing assist or by scoring by them self.
The third reason is that such players are able to keep going when all others are tried because the always want to increase their goal tally.
The fourth reason is that such players have synergistic effect whenever they are present in a match.
The fifth reason is that 62% of goals scored are typically by such players.
As a match involves attack as much as defense, and bearing in mind that the defense ability of a team controls the opposing teams movement, and at the same time greatly determine how they play as well as how many goals they score.
The next step is to evaluate the defense capability of the teams and consequently, review their performance level.
Effective defense involve aggressive pressing and containment of the opponent, and very well a solid defense reduces the number of expected goals, while a weak defense increases the number of expected goals.
A simple way to evaluate how formidable or vulnerable a team’s defense is, start by assessing the rate at which the team score goals, as against the rate at which they concede goals.
The important thing to note is as follows:
- The higher the rate of scoring goals, against the rate at which a team concedes goals, the more formidable a team’s defense is.
- The lower the rate of scoring goals against the rate at which a team concedes goals, the more vulnerable a team’s defense is.
In applying these criteria, the initiative is to deduct one goal from the expected goals against the side or team that’s seemly having a formidable defense.
And next, to put the score line in perspective, you need to consider the style of play that the teams will deploy in the match.
Style of play could be considered as the general behavior of the teams to achieve their objective in a match.
There are basically two style of play from which a team can choose to deploy and this are offensive and defensive play.
How do you know whether a team will be deploying a more offensive or defensive style of play?
The answer is not farfetched, team’s decision on style of play are usually shaped by what happened last time, and in particular by their fear and experience.
So to assert whether they are going to adopt a defensive or offensive style of play, the catch is to see if they have any fear what’s so ever of their opponent.
Typically teams are more inclined to adopt a more defensive style of play, when losing is a concern, and conversely they are more inclined to adopt a more offensive style of play, when their confident level is high about winning.
Confidence creates positive circumstances, and teams with confidence are more likely to analyze problems and face them head on.
Finally, to put the score line into perspective, adjust the expected goals.
It’s important to note that how events occur on the pitch is influenced by the combined effect of the style of play implored by both teams.
Having said that, the thing to keep in mind is as follows:
One, that games with both sides imploring defensive style of play are inherently inclined to result in low scoring outcome.
Two, that games with a side imploring defensive style of play, with the opponent imploring an attacking style of play, are inherently inclined to result in a low scoring outcome.
Three, that games with both teams deploying offensive style of play and are consequently, possessing vulnerable defense are inherently inclined to result in high scoring outcome.
Four, that games involving home teams that are hard to break down their defense are inherently inclined to result in low scoring outcome.
With this important tenets and strategies in places, you should be able to predict a good number of matches correctly.