In a soccer match, winning is hard work and teams that wins are those that are most committed, confident and have their objective clearly defined.
Thus to predict teams that are likely to win at home, what you need to focus on is character, and finding the abstraction to assert that the home team in the encounter under consideration is more motivated, confident, and at the same time possesses players whose desire and hunger for scoring goals are more immerse than their opponent’s.
To assert this attributes, the first step is to profile the teams in the encounter under consideration.
In line with the fact that the starting point of every teams achievement emanates from desire, and that strong desire bears feeble result, to profile the teams start with asking and answering questions on how long the teams have been in a division and what they have achieved as well as what they are aiming for.
To gain insight, find out the following:
One, whether the teams have just been promoted or just been relegated.
Two, whether the teams are playing in their second season after promotion or whether they are playing in their second season after relegation.
Three, whether the teams are playing in their third season after promotion or whether they are playing in their third season after relegation.
Four, whether the teams are playing in their fourth season after promotion or whether they are playing in their fourth season after relegation.
Five, whether the teams are current title holders or whether they are previous title contenders.
After that the next step is to align their status with where they finished on the league table, in relation to expectation, e.g. to win a title, gain promotion or maintain their league status, with a view to assert whether they are hot or cold.
There are several criteria and situations that you can use to determine whether a team is hot or cold.
- Situation where their achievement is greater than their aspiration level.
- Situation where their achievement is less than their aspiration level.
- Situation where their achievement is just in line with their aspiration level.
It’s important to note that teams have different aspiration level in keeping with the need to achieve goals, e.g. to win a title, gain promotion or maintain their league status, and these aspiration levels, consequently differentiate superior teams from mediocre.
And as a matter of fact, teams that have high aspiration worthy of getting excited about possess the advantage of it, exacting an enormous pull on them.
So with these in mind, to conclude your profiling simply assess and rate the teams with bigger and clearer aspiration higher than those with moderately challenging goals.
After profiling the teams, the next step is to evaluate the home team in the encounter under consideration against specific factors, based on their impact in a typical match.
- Factors that is likely to motivate the home team to score goals, e.g. home field advantage.
- Factors that is likely to foster high level performance from the home team, and hamper the performance of their opponent, such as the presence of a consistent goal scorer or the absence of key players.
- Factors that is likely to trigger the propensity of the home team to score more goals than their opponent, such as up-turn in form and great co-ordination.
Home Field Advantage
Every team enjoys a big advantage whenever they play at home as a result of having a large portion of the crowd behind them and roaring them on, and filling them with confidence, while their opponent have to deal with open hostility or perhaps worse, like salient contempt which drains confidence away.
Home advantage is about confidence, and feeds on the disparities between teams, with some teams enjoying a greater advantage than others.
Like all team sports soccer is about having confidence in your team mates and being able to co-ordinate what you do together, and by extension playing on a familiar ground boost these element.
A simple way to assess home field advantage in a match is to add-up the numbers of home win by the home side over time or to add up the numbers of win in their last three corresponding meetings and then compare it with the total numbers of wins by the visiting side over time or the number of win in their last three corresponding meeting, with a view to assert that the numbers of win by the home side is higher than the number of win by the visiting side.
Another simple way to assess this element or gauge how hostile a crowd will be toward an opposing team is to listen to the general consensus among their fans as to whether they are happy with their teams manager or chairman.
As these often makes the general atmosphere very unwelcoming to oppositions.
A team’s form determines the level of its performance in a match, and there are several factors that trigger up-turn in form.
The first is the sense of urgency, while the second is emotional climate of high expectation.
The sense of urgency creates an inner drive and desire to get result.
The sense of urgency often develops as a result of change in mental context, such as when there is a need to take revenge, build momentum or consolidate.
In particular when a team’s aspiration level is high, this element creates an emotional climate of high expectation that triggers a context where a team plays with enthusiasm and confidence as well as a desire to get result.
Another factor that influences up-turn in form is quality management.
Quality management often brings with it elements that impart on a team’s form, such as enthusiasm and a result oriented atmosphere.
It’s worthy to note that team’s form trends in several ways as well, for example:
- Up, down and up
- Up, down and sideways.
- Down, up and up.
- Up, down and down.
And as these patterns develops, streak starts to run on their own momentum, and this produces conditions that make further success or failure more likely, and in particular with teams that lose most of the time sliding into patterns of perpetual disappointment.
A simple way to assess a team’s form is to analyze their most recent match, by looking at their style of play and performance.
Another way is to look at the result of their last couple of games, with a view to spot sign of up-trending performance.
Another simple way is to look at where they are on the league table, relative to where they were on the league table in their previous campaign with a view to spot sign of up-trending or down-trending performance.
Physical fitness is one the most crucial factors that determines performance in a match, and its impact can be positive or negative.
On the positive side, it can lead to significant spike in performance, while on the negative side it can lead to a slump in performance.
It’s also goes without saying that difference in the level of physical fitness, often bring about a shift in balance in a match.
It is also important to note that the presence of physically fit players have significant impact on performance, and makes a team formidable.
While the absence of one or two key players in a team, either through injury or suspension does significantly affect a team’s performance.
Another factor that significantly affects performance is player’s fatigue.
One way players fatigue set in, is when a team is involved in lot of travel and most particularly when they are involved in extensive travel from country to country.
Another factor that also affects performance is players coming back from injury.
Indeed such players can have a good first game, with performance in their subsequent games dipping, as fitness becomes an issue.
So given this facts, to assess a team performance level, the initiative is to know who is playing, and who is out, and to affirm that the home team is not falling short of its key players.
Another initiative is to look out for tale signs of tiredness, and to affirm that the home team is not falling short, as a player could normally be able to play two games in a week, and more so as a team that has not played for three or four days does have an advantage over one that has played for the last three or four days.
After evaluating the factors that could possibly have impact on the match and also tilt the outcome in favor of a home team.
The next step is to relate the possible effect of these factors to expectation, to build a game model, using rational, deductive and inductive reasoning, and following through with a logical process to build up premises.
In line with the fact that matches where the home team wins evolves from scenarios listed below:
- Scenario where a home team scores the first goal and the visiting team equalizes at some point during the course of a match, and then the home team consequently adds another goal.
- Scenario where a home team scores two consecutive goals, with the opponent scoring a goal at some point in a match.
- Scenario where a home team concedes the first goal and consequently scores two or three consecutive goals during the course of the match.
- Scenario where a home team scores two goals in a match, with the opponent failing to score.
- Scenario where a home team scores just one goal in a match, with the opponent failing to score.
The initiative is to relate the tendencies of the teams to follow a pattern, by aligning expectations base their status and form.
To do this, the first step is to assert that a home team is experiencing a relatively better form, and consequently that they have higher status.
The second step is to assert that the home team could possibly score the first goal.
The third step is to assess the match from the perspective where the team that could possibly concede the first goal possibly pulls one goal back or equalizes, with a view to assert whether such probability is high or low.
In context, the initiative is to award one goal to the home team, were such a team seems highly poised to score the first goal, based on adequate evidence of having a superior status as well as a superb form.
After that the next step is to weigh the possibility of the visiting team in pulling one goal back as well as the possibility of the home team scoring more goals during the course of the encounter.
To reach an informed decision on these probabilities or on the likelihood of these events, the initiative is to evaluate the following:
One, the ratio of the likelihood that the visiting side will equalize during the course of the encounter, if the home team scores the first goal, considering their status and form, and also considering the rate at which the visiting team scores at their away matches.
Two, the ratio of the likelihood that the visiting side will not equalize during the course of the encounter, considering their status of being a less formidable side, and also considering the rate at which the visiting side scores at their away matches.
Three, the ratio of the likelihood that the visiting side will not equalize, considering their status and form of being a less formidable side, and also considering the rate at which they scored in their subsequent corresponding meetings.
Four, the ratio of the likelihood that the visiting side will equalize, if the home side scores the first goal, considering their status of being a more formidable side and also considering their superb form, as well as the rate at which they scored in the subsequent corresponding meetings.
Having arrived at the conclusion that the home team in the encounter under consideration has possibility to win from this analysis next is to look for very powerful motivating factors and reasons that lend credence to the assertion that they are highly desperate for win.
A simple way to do this is to run a check on the team to see if there are psychological pressure build up arising from the outcome of their recent match that could make the team more desperate to win.
One, by attaching some form of objective weight to the consequence of winning or losing the match, to their short and long term aspiration.
Two, by assessing the effect of psychological pressure that is anticipated to surround their position on the league table in relation to the significance and consequence of winning or losing to their short and long term aspiration.
It is worthy to note that in a typical match, the most distinctive character of teams that win is confidence.
Teams that are confident bring with them the resilience to bounce back from defeat, by often trying harder and longer to win.
The confidence to create win starts with teams knowing their strength and working to improve them.
- By investing in quality players.
- By tacking challenges with positive outlook.
Confidence is an ultimate game changer, and what’s really dramatic about teams with confidence is that they often win, even from losing position.
A simple way to assert that a home team in any match under consideration is highly confident, is to evaluate how they respond to challenges in relation to their objective, and consequently to find a pattern that translate to an up stick in performance or positive cycle of success.
Another simple way to assert that a home team is highly confident is to look at their recent matches to find a pattern that translate to a positive shift in momentum.
Another simple way to assert that a home team is highly confident is to look at how many games the home team has won, drawn and lost, with a view to spot tale signs of winning streak.
It’s worthy to note that winning streak put teams in control of their circumstances and brings rewards that perpetuate more winning.
What makes winning streak even more dramatic is that teams on winning streak can be counted on to shape events, because they stay in the game no matter what.