How to predict draws in football matches

Football presents one of the lowest rates of goal scored to the number of attacking actions performed in any sports, and thus increases the likelihood of drawn matches.

And from the analysis of matches that do end up as draw, one of the things that are evident is that the teams often exhibit a fighting spirit of not wanting to lose to one another.

Thus to predict that an encounter is likely to end up as draw, what you should seriously consider is whether the encounter is surrounded by factors that will influence or foster decisive play.

As rightly mentioned in earlier chapter, teams often bring different degree of influence to bear in matches relative to where and whom they play against.

So a good start is to first identify which team is playing at home and which is playing at away.

Having identified the team that is playing at home, and the team playing at away, the next step is to profile the teams to develop insight on their character, level of commitment and competitive difference.

In line with the fact that the starting point of every teams achievement emanates from desire, and that strong desire bears good result, while feeble desire bears feeble result, to profile the teams start with asking and answering questions, such as how long the teams have been in a division, and what they have achieved as well as what they are aiming for.

To gain insight, find out the following:

One, whether the teams have just been promoted or just been relegated.

Two, whether the teams are playing in their second season after promotion or whether they are playing in their second season after relegation.

Three, whether the teams are playing in their third season after promotion or whether they are playing in their third season after relegation.

Four, whether the teams are playing in their fourth season after promotion or whether they are playing in their fourth season after relegation.

Five, whether the teams are current title holders or whether they are previous title holders or contenders

After that the next step is to align their status with where they finished on the league table, in relation to the goal they have set or in relation to expectation, e.g. to gain promotion, maintain their league status or to win a title, with a view to assert whether they are hot or cold.

There are several criteria and situations that you can use to determine whether a team is cold or hot.

  • Situation where their achievement is greater than their aspiration level.
  • Situation where their achievement is less than their aspiration level.
  • Situation where their achievement is just in line with their aspiration level.

It is worthy to note that teams have different aspiration level in keeping with the need to achieve goals, e.g. to win a title, gain promotion or maintain their league status, and these aspiration levels, consequently differentiates superior teams from mediocre.

And as a matter of fact, teams that have high aspiration worthy of getting excited about possess the advantage of it, exacting an enormous pull on them.

With these in mind, to conclude your profiling, simply assess and rate the teams with bigger and clearer aspiration higher than those with moderately challenging goals.

Next, given the fact that encounters that often ends up as draw emanates mostly from scenario, where either a home team scores first and then the visiting team equalizes or from the scenario where a visiting team scores first, and then the home team equalizes.

The approach is to evaluate the probability of the teams to score first by analyzing their strength, form and factors surrounding the encounter under consideration, that are likely to increase the probability of the event and at the same time compel the team that concedes, to fight to equalize, if one of the teams goes ahead to take the lead.

In evaluating the first scenario, the initiative is to start by asserting whether a home side is relatively hot, and thus has the potential to score the first goal based on the factors surrounding the encounter that are likely to foster their propensity to do so.

  1. By assessing factors that are likely to motivate the home team to score goals, e.g. home advantage.
  2. By assessing factors that are likely to trigger the propensity of the home team to score, e.g. up-turn in form and great co-ordination.
  3. By assessing factors that are likely to foster high level performance from the home team, e.g. psychological pressure build up emanating from losing their last home game.

Having arrived at the conclusion that a home side is highly poised to score the first goal base on the assessment of these factors, the next step is to evaluate the probability of their opponent to equalize.

It’s worthy to note that what determines whether a team will equalize in a match depends very much on two factors:

One, how resilient a team is.

Two, how desperate a team needs to secure its position or status.

It’s also important to note that in a typical match, how situation occur arises through the use of language, that includes not only the spoken and written, but also body language, facial expression, tune of voice and other actions that have symbolic intent as well as the unsaid.

The unsaid includes regret, expectations, significance, interpretations, assumptions and issues that appear as dangerous.

When a team scores the first goal, this use of language comes into play, and shapes how subsequent events turn out.

To untie these knots of language in a match, the catch is to take a look at the situation and circumstance under which the teams will play in, to find abstraction that lend credence to how the unsaid will influence their thinking, drive actions and consequently, dictate their behavior.

A simple way to do this is to go through the situation and circumstances under which they will play in and articulate the psychological elements that will compel them to action in the game.

For instance, in line with the fact that when team’s declare a match as significant and important, that they commit to the game, the catch is to determine how significant the match is and how dangerous a loss is to the team.

Having determined that there is much significant and expectation on the match, the next thing to look at is the team’s resilience, enthusiasm, resolve and confidence to perform.

Resilience

Resilience is the ability to adapt to change and crises. It’s also the ability to bounce back from developments that may feel totally over whelming at first, and teams with resilience are characterizes by the following:

  • They set goals.
  • They work to reach their goals and often emerge from the resilience process better than before.
  • They are emotionally committed to do their best.
  • They have both tapped and untapped reserves, thus enabling them to overcome and thrive when they face setbacks and challenges.
  • They push back when they concede a goal instead of playing on the opposition’s terms.

Enthusiasm 

Enthusiasm is the choice to rally instead of getting discouraged.

It’s the dynamic motivator that keeps a team to persistently work towards their goal.

Consequently, when teams are enthusiastic they loss their fear and achieve results.

Resolve

Resolve is the decision to stay up-beat.

When a team resolves to “do or die” nothing stops them.

Consequently, resolve is like a magnet and the clearer a team’s objective, the stronger it pulls.

Confidence

Confidence is the bridge between expectations and performance.

Confidence brings with it the resilience to bounce back from defeat, and teams that are confident are more likely to analyze problem and face them head-on, as well as take initiative to make adjustment or try something new.

Consequently, when teams believe in themselves they try harder and longer, and this increases the chances of equalizing.

There are several ways of determining whether a team is resilient, enthusiastic, resolute or confident, and can push back instead of playing in the opponent’s terms, when they concede a goal.

A simple way to do this is to look at the squad of the team under consideration to see if they possess quality players with which their manager can subsequently make substitutions to stir things up.

Another simple way to do this is to look at their previous record or past meeting result or results to see if they have any pattern in success rate or positive cycles, or streak that can create positive momentum for success, pride or build enthusiasm to do something new.

Another simple way to do this is to look at the fixtures timing to see if there are events that coincide with elements that could create expectations, and at the same time emotionally commit the teams to do their best.

Having determine that a side possesses this qualities, next is to review the encounter generally, to affirm that a draw is not just achievable by the teams, but also that a draw is very realistic, based on the situation and circumstances they are playing in.

How a team performs in a match depends on the situations and circumstances under which they play, as well as how coordinated and motivated they are.

So given this backdrop, the catch is to assess whether a team is most likely to label their previous performance or defeat as racket, or become cautious, or whether a team is poised to build momentum on a previous victory.

One, based on how their form aligns with their aspiration.

Two, based on how the potential consequence of losing is likely to influence or motivate the team.

Three, based on how their goal and where they are on the league table align with the expectation to build momentum.

Four, based on how confident they are or have become, as teams naturally gravitate toward behaving in ways that support confidence.

Having gone through these assessment, next to put the probabilities into perspective, juxtapose the likely tendencies of the teams in the encounter under consideration, based on how their status and form align with expectation, with a view to affirm that the match is very balance, and as such that the teams are relatively difficult to beat.

Lastly, to stand a great chance of getting it right, one review the encounter under consideration from the perspective where a team’s likelihood to score first in a match depends on being confident, as well as being in relatively superb form, and consequently assert that their players can count on themselves as well as on their other team mates.

Two, review the encounter under consideration from the perspective where the chances of equalizing depends on been surrounded by very strong motivational factors, that are capable of prompting strong  determination to not want to lose, and consequently assert that the team in question is desperate and are in need to secure their position on the league table.

Three, review the encounter under consideration from the perspective where the chances of equalizing also depends on the possession of quality players, and consequently assert that the team under review possesses a good number of players with the desire and hunger to score goals.

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