How to make accurate soccer predictions

Success at predicting soccer matches correctly depends chiefly on applying the right strategy in interpreting the different situations and circumstances that teams usually play in, and following through with subjective probability and game logic to make deductions.

To do this in any match under consideration, a good start is to identify which team is playing at home and which is playing at away.

This is very important because teams bring different degree of influence to bear on matches relative to where and whom they play against.

Of course these shouldn’t happen, but the fact is that crowd usually have influence on refereeing, and it’s known that the presence of a large crowd of jeering home supporter does affect referees judgment, and very well too that teams that have a long way to travel, with few supporting fans often struggle to play in hostile environments due to an effect known as home field advantage.

So given this fact the second step to predict soccer matches correctly, is to evaluate the effect of home field advantage.

One simple way to assess this in a league game is to add up the numbers of home win, by the home side over time or in their last three corresponding meetings, and then compare it with the total numbers of win, by the visiting side over time or in their last three corresponding meetings.

The third step to predict soccer matches correctly is to profile the teams in the encounter under consideration, by evaluating their character, primary goal and level of cohesion.

Profiling not only helps to uncover valuable insight on the competitive difference of the teams, but also helps in asserting their status and form, as well as to know whether a team is a greater force or to know whether a team is difficult to play against.

So given the fact that the starting point of every teams achievement emanates from desire and that strong desire bears good results, while weak desire bears poor results, to profile teams in a league match, the catch is to assess how long a team has been in a division, and what they have achieved or are aiming to accomplish.

To gain insight on this, the catch is to find out the following:

One, whether the teams have just been promoted or just been relegated.

Two, whether the teams are playing in their second season after promotion or are playing in their second season after relegation.

Three, whether the teams are playing in their third season after promotion or are playing in their third season after relegation.

Four, whether the teams are playing in their fourth season after promotion or are playing in their fourth season after relegation.

Five, whether the teams are current title holders or were the previous title holders or contenders.

After that, next is to align their status with where they finished on the league table, and in relation to the goal they have set or in relation to expectations, e.g. to gain promotion, win a title or maintain their league status, with a view to assert that they are either cold or hot.

After this, the next step is to consider who is playing or been featured by their managers.

It’s worthy to note that player’s quality is key to what a team could possibly accomplish in a match, as well as in how a match would go.

To gain insight on this, the initiative is to follow-up on the team’s announcement and team’s sheet.

First and foremost, the team sheet would give you an indication of how a match will go, as you could tell whether a manager is playing his best team, and whether there are players out through injury or whether a manager is saving players for a more important match.

Secondly, the team sheet would tell you the likely formation they would play, and with this you could draw a couple of inference.

For instance:

  • If a team has no recognized striker, this could infer that they are likely going to play a more defensive formation.
  • If a team has a number of strikers on the substitute bench, this could infer that the manager will be putting them on, at a later stage in the game, and thus not likely to settle for a draw.
  • If a manager is playing a mid-fielder in place of his key sticker, this could infer that his been relatively cautious, and thus could possibly settle for a draw.

As a typical match involves hundreds of skillful moves and stratagems, with the outcome decided by several quick and random events, the next step is to focus on the physical fitness of the players, with a view to spot any disparity both in form and skill set.

Asserting whether a team is in form or experiencing a slump in form is vital, as players and team’s form play a major role in the events that transpires on the field, and consequently determines the chances of winning.

A team’s form defines its state and level of consistence as well as how they play.

There are several ways to determine whether a team is in form or out of form.

One simple way is to assess the physical fitness of their players as well as their level of consistency.

To accomplish this, the catch is to look at the team’s sheet to see who and who is been featured.

The team’s sheet will tell you whether there are players out through injury or suspension.

It’s worthy to note that when a key player is injured or out through suspension, a team doesn’t only loses that individual talent, but also loses their influence on those around them, and this often dampens a team’s form.

The second way is to look at the top goal scorers list to see who and who a team has on it, and how consistent they are at scoring goals.

The third way is to look at their recent matches, e.g. to know how many games the team has played without a loss, and how many games they have played without a win.

Other runs to look out for as well are:

  1. How many games played without a goal?
  2. How many games played and won consecutively at away.
  3. How many games played without conceding a goal?

The fourth way is to look at how long they have rested, as it’s often hard to sustain play over a number of months, especially when there are lots of traveling, and more so as a team that has not played for 7 days has significant advantage over one that has played in the last 3 or 4 days, simply because they are more likely to experience fatigue and this dampens form.

After that, the next step is to define a constant within the context of the contemporary psych of the game, and the situation and circumstance under which they are going to play.

To do this correctly, the key is to evaluate the situations and circumstances under which the match will take place to find abstractions that helps you to know that when certain factors are present, you can expect a specific event to happen.

It’s worthy to note that how situation occurs in a match arises in language which includes not only the spoken but the unsaid, which includes expectations, regrets, disappointments, interpretations, significance and issues that appears as dangerous to a team’s position and aspiration.

So to get a clear perspective of how a match will go, the catch is to articulate how the unsaid will influence their thinking and drive actions that ultimately dictate their behavior.

There are two dimensions to the process of articulating the unsaid, the first is to notice the connection between performances and how situation occur in matches.

The second is to notice the events that always holds when some form of objective weight are attached to the situations and circumstances under  which the encounter would be played, and next model the encounter by articulating the psychological elements that are likely to compel actions in a game, based on these relationships.

For instance, given that when teams declare a match as significant and important they commit to the game, the first step is to determine how significant the match is, and how dangerous a loss is to the teams.

After determining how significant the match is to the teams, the second step is to relate game patterns base on the status and forms of the two teams, by aligning expectations from the assertion on whether the form of one of the teams is improving, while the form of their opponent is in decline or the reverse.

To put your analysis into perspective, the key is to view the encounter under consideration, first from the perspective where a team’s likelihood to score first in a match depends on being confident, and at the same time being in relatively superb form.

Second, is to view the encounter from the perspective where the chances of equalizing depends on been surrounded by strong motivational factor, that are capable of prompting strong determination to not want to lose.

Third, is to view the encounter under consideration from the perspective where the chances of winning a match depends on being highly committed, confident and being in relatively better form.

Fourth, is to view the encounter under consideration from the context of the contemporary psych of the game, with focus on factors that are likely to give a team winning edge, with which you can hinge, assertion on that there is high probability that a team will score, equalize or win.

For example, given that the element of home advantage often motivate teams playing at home to often play a more offensive kind of soccer and thus score goal, and in most cases the first goal.

The idea is to evaluate this factor, and then make this element a relative constant (translating to one goal) in situations and circumstances where the status of a team is relatively high or higher, and these element is most likely to have impact on the outcome of the encounter.

After that next is to evaluate the following:

The ratio of the likelihood that the visiting team will equalize, if the home side score’s the first goal, considering that they have higher status and a superb form, and also considering the rate at which the visiting team scores at their away games.

The ratio of the likelihood that the visiting team will equalize, if the home side score’s the first goal considering that they have higher status and are a more formidable team, and are consequently experiencing a relatively superb form and also considering the rate at which they scored in their subsequent corresponding meeting or meetings.

The ratio of the likelihood that the visiting team will not equalize, considering their status of being a less formidable side, and also considering the rate at which the visiting side scores at their away games.

The ratio of the likelihood that the visiting team will not equalize, considering their status of being a less formidable side, and also considering the rate at which the visiting side scores at their away games.

The ratio of the likelihood that the visiting side will not equalize, considering their status and form of being a less formidable side, and also considering the rate at which they scored in their subsequent corresponding meetings.

As goals in a match are basically dependent on the quality of a team’s attack, the key is to simply assess the player’s form, e.g. relative to their past performance, by comparing their last match result with the result of their subsequent corresponding match.

The probability of a team to score

To evaluate the probability of a team to score, the catch is to focus on the quality of the players the side possess as well as their pugnacity to break the defensive resilience of their opponent.

Given that the performance of a team is a function of variables, such as change in squad, player quality and form, the initiative is to compare the quality of the team’s current squad relative to the one that was featured in their previous meeting against the same opponent, with a view to assert that the side is a much improved side, and as such has a much higher chances of scoring.

Consequently, since the likelihood that a team will score in a match, is basically dependent on the quality of their players, the catch is to also take a look at the top goal scorer list with a view to assert that the side has a good number of players with the desire and hunger to score goals.

The probability of a team to equalize

To evaluate the probability of a team to equalize, the catch is to assess the form of the players that will be playing, with a view to find a reason to infer that the team in question is desperate, and are in need to secure their position on the league table, validated by the fact that a loss would result to been displaced by the opponent or by a rival, and also with reasons to infer that they are an improved side with players that are consistent in scoring goals, validated by having at least one of their key players on the top goal scorer list.

The probability of a team to defend a lead

To evaluate the probability of a team to defend a lead, the catch is to assess the form of the players who will be playing, with a view to find a reason to believe that the team is more motivated to score more goals than their opponent by validating the following assertions:

The side has more players with the desire and hunger to score goals than their opponent on the top goal scorers list.

The side is in a position on the league table, where it’s very likely to experience pressure and triggers that will influence a more decisive play.

For example, such as being in a position where a loss is likely to result or lead to been displaced on points on the table or from a very important position either by the opponent or a rival.

Once you have the bones of the analysis, next is to evaluate what the corollary implies by segmenting your assessment into Yes on No, based on the probability as to whether both teams will score or not.

  • Firstly, by reviewing the probability of both teams to scoring.
  • Secondly, by reviewing the probability of both teams not scoring.

Segmenting the probability of the outcome in this way, not only helps you to uncover valuable insight on the competitive difference of the teams, but also helps in finding a parsimonious fit on the outcome of the encounter under consideration.

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